Democracy Crisis Deepens Across East African Nations
Democracy’s light grows dimmer in East Africa as political turmoil erodes hard-fought democratic progress. The continent has seen troubling developments since 2020. Four successful coups and three attempted takeovers have rocked West Africa and the Sahel region. This pattern now threatens to spread into East African nations. Recent Afrobarometer data reveals a stark reality – only 37 percent of Africans feel satisfied with democracy’s function in their countries. Yet they continue to strongly support democratic systems overall.
The weakening of democratic institutions poses one of the biggest challenges in African politics today. Electoral authoritarian regimes now dominate the political landscape across Africa. More citizens live under fully or partially authoritarian states than ever before. Term limit violations tell an important part of this story. Leaders who bypassed constitutional term limits ruled five of the eight African nations that experienced coups since 2015. Military takeovers, civil conflicts, and unchecked executive power now threaten East African nations. These forces could undo decades of democratic gains in the region.
Recent Coups and Power Shifts Shake East Africa
Image Source: Crisis Group
East Africa faces a wave of political turmoil as conflicts and democratic failures reshape how countries govern their people. Each nation shows its own pattern of democratic decline, yet they all pose serious threats to civil rights and representative government.
Sudan’s military conflict derails democratic transition
Sudan’s hopes for democracy crumbled when military leaders took control and dissolved the civilian-led government in October 2021. This ended a power-sharing deal that aimed to bring democratic rule to the country. Thousands took to the streets of Khartoum in protest. Security forces responded by cutting communication networks and violently crushing demonstrations. They killed 12 protesters in just one week after the takeover.
The situation got much worse on April 15, 2023. A civil war broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This brutal conflict has killed at least 13,000 people, though some say the death toll could reach 150,000. The violence has forced over 10 million people to flee their homes, creating the world’s biggest displacement crisis.
The heart of the conflict lies between SAF General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). They clashed over plans to merge the RSF into the regular military – a vital reform for civilian oversight that threatened both leaders’ power.
Ethiopia’s civil war weakens federal authority
Ethiopia struggles with growing unrest after its brutal two-year Tigray war ended in November 2022. New fighting erupted in the northern Amhara region in August 2023 between federal forces and Fano militia fighters. The conflict started after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered regional security forces to join federal structures. This sparked outrage from Amhara nationalists who felt it would leave their region vulnerable.
The government declared a six-month emergency in Amhara and set curfews in six cities. The Fano militia, though not as well-equipped as federal forces, could become a serious threat with enough popular support. This latest crisis ranks as Ethiopia’s worst security challenge since the Tigray war. It has displaced over 100,000 people and left 4.7 million children unable to attend school.
Ethiopia’s problems could affect the entire region. One diplomat put it bluntly: “If there was a major internal crisis within Ethiopia, it would not implode inwards. It would explode outwards”. The country also provides key peacekeeping forces across Africa, making its stability vital for regional security.
Uganda’s long-standing autocracy tightens grip
Uganda’s political freedom continues to shrink under President Yoweri Museveni’s rule since 1986. His government has steadily stripped away democratic protections. They changed the constitution twice to keep him in power – first removing term limits in 2005, then scrapping the age limit of 75 in 2017.
Museveni stays in control through a heavily politicized security system that crushes any opposition. Opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) reports about 2,000 activists have been kidnapped since the 2021 elections, with 18 people still missing. State violence peaked in November 2020 when security forces killed at least 54 people during protests after Wine’s arrest.
The January 2026 presidential election has already created new tensions. The US-based Holocaust Memorial Museum recently warned about possible “mass atrocities” during the election. President Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has grown more powerful in both the army and ruling party. He might become his father’s successor, which would likely mean more authoritarian rule for Uganda.
Why Are Citizens Losing Faith in Democracy?
Image Source: Common Dreams
Democracy’s reputation has taken a nosedive in East Africa. Citizens have lost faith in democratic institutions and processes. People still prefer democracy as their system of governance, according to polls. The gap between what democracy promises and what it delivers keeps getting wider. Support for democratic ideals remains strong, but trust in its real-world application continues to fade throughout East Africa.
Youth disillusionment with electoral outcomes
Young people make up about three-quarters of Africa’s population, yet they show worrying signs of electoral disconnect. The 2022 Kenyan election saw only 40% of registered voters from the youth demographic – a 5% drop from the last election. Young voters don’t show up because elected officials “lie, give empty promises, and only appear when seeking votes”.
The youth see elections as pointless exercises that don’t create real change. A 22-year-old Kenyan student put it bluntly: “After [voting], you’ll never see them again until they come back to lie to you again”. Youth voter registration numbers keep falling, even with massive voter education efforts on platforms like TikTok.
Money has become the main driver of youth participation in politics. Young voters show up at political rallies just for cash handouts rather than policy discussions. A 19-year-old Kenyan’s words tell the story: “I can’t attend a rally if there’s nothing on the table, because I need to eat”. This behavior shows economic desperation rather than political interest.
Economic hardship fuels political apathy
Tough economic times have sped up people’s loss of faith in democracy across East Africa. About 5 million young Kenyans couldn’t find jobs even before COVID-19 hit. The situation got worse when the pandemic killed jobs, the Ukraine war disrupted food supplies, and drought conditions got worse. People focus on survival rather than democratic participation.
Money problems and political withdrawal go hand in hand throughout the region. Economic frustration has sparked protests and unrest in several East African countries. Kenya saw youth-led protests that left 82 people dead. An activist pointed out that people disconnect from politics because democratic governments fail to address basic needs that affect daily life.
East Africans have started questioning democracy’s worth because their lives haven’t improved. People struggling with poverty and unemployment find authoritarian alternatives more appealing when they promise stability and growth. China’s “developmental authoritarianism” looks better to those who think democracy holds back progress.
Corruption and elite capture erode trust
Democracy suffers most when people believe political systems work only for the rich and powerful. Research shows that “apex corruption” – high-level politicians misusing public office for personal gain – directly hurts support for democracy. It breaks down trust in institutions and makes authoritarianism more attractive. Numbers back this up: corruption scandals make violent protests jump by 70%.
Powerful people hijacking government functions creates deep problems. They turn public services into profit machines, especially in security sectors. Elites often use police or military forces to crush rivals and keep power. This creates a system where “self-enrichment” wins while regular citizens “gain nothing from politics and voting”.
Most people in East Africa believe their states have been “captured by a political elite, which extracts rents and excludes the citizenry”. Freedom House found only eight “free” countries in sub-Saharan Africa in 2021. Twenty countries fell into the “not free” category – up from fourteen in 2006. This democratic backslide matches growing public doubt that elections can create meaningful change.
How Executive Overreach Undermines Democratic Norms
Image Source: The Conversation
Democratic foundations face serious threats across East Africa as leaders steadily tear down constitutional safeguards. Authoritarian control deepens through several tactics that weaken oversight and eliminate political rivals.
Presidents extend term limits through legal loopholes
Leaders have found ways to bypass constitutional restrictions and stay in power longer. The heads of 14 African nations have ruled beyond two terms by finding ways around constitutional limits. We have a long way to go, but we can build up on the progress made between 2000-2015, when more leaders respected term limits. Today, 56 percent of African countries – 30 out of 54 – operate without effective checks on executive power.
These tactics dramatically shape how long leaders stay in power. Leaders who follow term limits typically serve 5 years, while those who dodge these limits rule for 16 years on average. The picture becomes even starker when succession arrangements come into play – the typical time in power stretches to 26 years.
Opposition parties face repression and censorship
Beyond constitutional manipulation, governments actively crush their political rivals. Tanzanian authorities arrested opposition leader Tundu Lissu in April 2025 after he demanded electoral reforms. He faced treason charges – which carry the death penalty – for allegedly inciting rebellion. His party CHADEMA ended up banned from elections until 2030.
Burundi’s June 2025 elections happened under heavy restrictions after electoral officials blocked major opposition candidates from running. The ruling party’s youth wing threatened voters while authorities kept opposition representatives away from polling stations.
Governments throughout East Africa use digital censorship to quiet their critics. Tanzania’s communications regulator took down more than 80,000 websites, blogs, and social media accounts in May 2025, claiming child protection reasons. This crackdown followed new rules that made it illegal to post content that might disturb public order.
Judiciaries and parliaments lack independence
The separation of powers has broken down as executives dominate other government branches. Alexander Hamilton’s warning still rings true – the judiciary remains “beyond comparison the weakest” governmental department, lacking both “the sword” (held by executives) and “the purse” (controlled by parliaments).
East African courts face direct pressure when their decisions challenge executive power. Malawi’s former president Peter Mutharika tried to force Supreme Court justices into retirement after they overturned his fraudulent election. Malawi’s High Court blocked this attempt, but the case shows how executives try to undermine judicial independence.
Parliaments also give in to executive pressure instead of providing oversight. One analysis points out that “Power has remained highly centralized in the executive, enabled by the capitulation of legislatures”. This setup turns elections into mere performances that barely affect how countries are governed.
What Role Do Foreign Powers Play in East Africa’s Crisis?
Image Source: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
External powers now shape East Africa’s path to democracy through competing interests and conflicting policies. These actors take advantage of leadership gaps that political instability creates, and they often put their geopolitical gains ahead of democratic values.
Russia and China expand influence through security and trade
Russia and China have gained strong positions in East Africa by offering alternatives to Western partnerships. Russia focuses on security support, and its mercenaries now operate in at least five African countries. The Wagner Group sent 1,200 fighters to Sudan, where they provide military training while getting mining rights in return. The group’s presence has led to more human rights violations against civilians.
China takes a different approach by using economic power. It has become Africa’s biggest bilateral lender, with loans of over $153 billion from 2000-2019. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China funds major infrastructure projects without asking for governance changes. Countries that face Western criticism about democratic decline now turn to these new partnerships.
Western aid often prioritizes stability over democracy
Western nations often go against their own democratic principles through contradictory actions. The United States gives large amounts of security aid to governments that lean toward authoritarianism. This includes $3 billion to Ethiopia since 2010, despite clear evidence of human rights abuse. Western powers choose counterterrorism teamwork and strategic interests over concerns about good governance.
This creates doubt about their commitment to democracy. Local people see hypocrisy when Western governments criticize election problems but keep security deals with these same regimes. This mixed message hurts pro-democracy movements because it links democratic values to outside meddling rather than real reform.
Regional blocs struggle to enforce democratic norms
Regional organizations can’t effectively uphold democratic standards. The African Union has suspended four member states after coups since 2021, but these actions barely changed how military governments behave. The AU rarely punishes sitting leaders who manipulate their constitutions.
The East African Community shows similar problems with enforcement. They created an early warning system to spot potential conflicts, but they hesitate to step in during governance crises because they worry about sovereignty issues. This weak enforcement lets regional powers publicly support democratic principles while failing to hold their neighbors responsible for violations.
Can Civil Society and Youth Movements Reverse the Trend?
A new generation of activists has risen to fight authoritarianism in East Africa as democracy faces erosion. These movements bring hope despite the region’s widespread governance problems.
Grassroots activism challenges authoritarianism
Citizens have shown amazing resilience as they stand up to executive overreach. Senegalese people united strongly when President Macky Sall tried to delay elections in early 2024. The mass protests brought together civil society, opposition parties, women, youth, and labor unions that forced authorities to respect constitutional principles. This civic uprising stopped constitutional manipulation without any military or external help.
Kenya saw historic youth protests against the Finance Bill 2024 that created decentralized support networks. Civil society groups stepped in to help as tensions grew. They provided legal support to arrested protesters, medical care to the injured, and counseling to affected families. The resistance led to the bill’s withdrawal and several cabinet members lost their jobs, with 81% of people supporting the protests.
Digital media strengthens civic involvement
Social media platforms have revolutionized political action in East Africa. The Kenyan protests showed how digital tools help leaderless movements work together effectively, using strategies like those from Occupy Wall Street. Apps like WhatsApp, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter) have become more than just chat tools – they’re now hubs that organize political action.
Digital activism helps marginalized communities find new ways to participate in politics. These platforms let activists work around traditional media limits and government restrictions while building trust networks. Social media also speeds up information sharing and connects grassroots movements globally, creating strong networks that tackle issues like land rights and environmental damage.
Lessons from Senegal and Zambia offer hope
Recent shifts toward democracy show ways to push back against authoritarian control. Zambia’s Hakainde Hichilema defeated President Lungu in 2021, with lawyer Chipokota Mwanawasa playing a key role in the campaign. Mwanawasa now serves as Policy Advisor to President Hichilema and Deputy Head of the Presidential Delivery Unit.
Senegal proves how public protests, international pressure, and strong courts protect democratic values. Opposition forces won despite unfair election conditions because citizens stayed engaged. This victory shows that people who defend constitutional principles can successfully resist leaders who try to manipulate power.
The Path Forward for East African Democracy
East Africa stands at a critical democratic crossroads. Of course, the region faces tough challenges as authoritarian trends speed up across multiple nations. Constitutional manipulation, opposition suppression, and judicial interference weaken democratic institutions. Citizens now question whether democracy brings real improvements to their lives.
Recent events tell a troubling story. Military interventions have torn apart Sudan’s democratic transition and caused a humanitarian disaster. Ethiopia struggles with regional conflicts that shake national stability. Uganda’s long-standing autocracy continues to tear down the remaining democratic safeguards. These changes mirror broader continental patterns where electoral authoritarian regimes spread, even though citizens still support democratic governance in theory.
Economic issues drive this democratic decline by a lot. Young people turn away from voting mainly because elected officials repeatedly fail to tackle unemployment, poverty, and inequality. This disappointment creates dangerous openings for authoritarian alternatives that promise stability and development without democratic limits.
Foreign powers shape this crisis in complex ways. Russia and China build partnerships without governance conditions. Western nations put security interests ahead of democratic principles. Regional organizations have tools to address democratic decline but don’t step in against member states.
Yet hope springs from grassroots activism and civil society involvement. Digital media strengthens previously sidelined communities to join political discussions. Youth-led movements show amazing resilience against authoritarian overreach. Recent democratic changes in Senegal and Zambia show how negative governance trends can turn around.
East African democracy’s future largely depends on fixing the core public concerns that feed democratic disappointment. Democratic institutions must deliver clear improvements in living standards and curb corruption effectively. Otherwise, citizens will keep doubting democracy’s value. The way forward remains unclear, but successful democratic shifts elsewhere in Africa prove that committed citizens can overcome massive governance challenges through steady civic involvement and strategic action.
East Africa’s democratic path will reflect how willing citizens are to protect constitutional principles from authoritarian threats. The regional democratic crisis runs deep, but history shows time and again that determined civil societies can win back democratic spaces even in the face of serious governance challenges.
