Major Poll Shows Unexpected Twist in NYC Mayoral Fight

The NYC mayoral race has taken a dramatic turn. Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has widened his lead by a lot. The latest Emerson College polls show Mamdani with an impressive 25-point lead over his rivals. He stands at 50% while Andrew Cuomo has 25% and Curtis Sliwa trails at 21%.

Multiple surveys confirm Mamdani’s growing strength. RealClearPolitics polling averages put him at 46.1%, giving him a 14.3-point advantage over independent candidate Cuomo at 31.8%. Republican Sliwa lags behind at 16.3%, trailing by 29.8 points. Mamdani’s support base keeps expanding. His backing among Black voters has surged from 50% to 71%. Young voters between 18-34 show strong support at 62%. Asian Americans back him at 67%, while those without religious affiliations stand firmly at 69%.

New York’s position as America’s largest and most diverse city makes this race crucial. The city remains a global financial and cultural hub but faces serious challenges. It ranks as one of America’s most expensive cities after several California metros. The housing crisis is evident with just 1.41% vacancy rate. City authorities have labeled 9.2% of rental housing as “overcrowded”. These challenges highlight the importance of this increasingly one-sided mayoral contest.

Poll Reveals Mamdani Widens Lead Unexpectedly

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“Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani hits nearly 50% support and has a 25-point lead over independent former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, according to the Emerson poll.” — Emerson College Polling, Official Polling Organization

Recent polls show Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has taken a commanding lead in the New York City mayoral race. His numbers have grown beyond what experts predicted earlier. Two major polls from last week reveal how much the electoral map has changed as Election Day gets closer.

Latest Emerson and Quinnipiac numbers show 25-point lead

The Emerson College Poll puts Mamdani way ahead with 50% support from likely voters. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo trails at 25%, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa sits at 21%. Mamdani’s support has jumped seven points since Emerson’s September poll.

Quinnipiac University’s newest survey backs up Mamdani’s strong position, though by a smaller margin. Their numbers put him at 43% among likely voters, with Cuomo at 33% and Sliwa at 14%. While the exact numbers vary, several polling organizations show the same trend:

• Suffolk University: Mamdani 44%, Cuomo 34%, Sliwa 11%
• Fox News: Mamdani 47%, Cuomo 31%, Sliwa 15%
• Hill/Emerson: Mamdani 50%, Cuomo 25%, Sliwa 21%

Early voting data adds weight to Mamdani’s strong position. About 58% of early voters support him. These numbers could make a real difference – 735,000 New Yorkers have already voted, setting a record for a non-presidential election in the city.

Cuomo loses ground despite Trump endorsement

President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement hasn’t helped Cuomo’s campaign. The former governor joined the race as an Independent after losing the Democratic primary, and his position has gotten worse in recent weeks.

Trump’s support seems to have fallen flat. Cuomo’s response to questions about the endorsement was that the president “not endorsing me, he’s opposing Mamdani”. Mamdani’s team quickly used this to their advantage, with his campaign spokesperson calling it “absolutely the nail in the coffin for Andrew Cuomo”.

RealClearPolitics shows Mamdani leading Cuomo by 14.3 points (46.1% to 31.8%). This gap presents a huge challenge for the former governor with just hours left in the campaign.

Sliwa gains among conservatives but remains third

Republican Curtis Sliwa has picked up some support from conservative voters but can’t break out of third place in any poll. Cuomo keeps asking him to drop out and unite the opposition against Mamdani, but Sliwa won’t budge.

Sliwa claims he’s turned down several offers to quit, including what he calls “seven bribes” worth $10 million. He colorfully stated he would “rather impale myself like Mel Gibson did at the end of ‘Braveheart'” than leave the race.

The New Yorker offered one positive note for the Republican – they reported that in a one-on-one matchup, Sliwa would only trail Mamdani by eight points, better than Cuomo’s numbers. Yet Quinnipiac’s poll gives him just 14% of likely voters, and RealClearPolitics puts his average at 16.3%.

As New York City voters head to the polls, Mamdani’s big lead across multiple surveys points to him becoming the next mayor. Still, both opponents continue their final push across all five boroughs.

Cuomo Struggles to Regain Momentum After Primary Loss

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Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral campaign faces major setbacks after a surprising primary loss to Zohran Mamdani in June. The former governor started as the clear favorite but now struggles to regain momentum in his attempt to return to public office.

Independent run fails to attract undecided voters

The Democratic primary left Cuomo trailing by nearly 13 points. He then launched an independent campaign against Mamdani to appeal to moderate Democrats, independents, and Republicans. His strategy hasn’t worked well. Latest polls show his campaign efforts—including appearances on right-wing media and visits to Republican strongholds—haven’t made much difference in closing the gap.

His team has focused on older voters, Jewish New Yorkers, and Republicans. These efforts haven’t turned into votes. A recent poll suggests Cuomo would lose to Mamdani by 14.3 points in the general election. President Trump’s recent endorsement has actually hurt rather than helped his poll numbers in recent weeks.

Sexual harassment allegations continue to affect favorability

The shadow of Cuomo’s 2021 resignation as governor still looms over his campaign. He stepped down after multiple sexual harassment accusations. While he denies any wrongdoing, the U.S. Justice Department concluded in January 2025 that he had “subjected over a dozen women to a sexually hostile work environment”.

Voters haven’t forgotten these allegations. At a recent debate, Mamdani pointed out that Charlotte Bennett, one of the accusers, sat in the audience. He asked Cuomo directly: “What do you say to the 13 women who you sexually harassed?”. Some lawsuits about these allegations remain active, though Cuomo claims the cases have been “dropped legally”.

A Bronx voter named Henty puts it simply: “I just don’t think he’s a good human being”.

Cuomo’s experience vs. ethics debate resurfaces

Cuomo positions himself as the experienced candidate throughout the campaign. He often highlights his background as former HUD secretary, state attorney general, and governor. During debates and campaign events, he takes shots at Mamdani’s background: “He’s never run anything, managed anything. He’s never had a real job”.

Mamdani strikes back by focusing on ethics. “What I don’t have in experience, I make up for in integrity,” he declared during a mayoral debate. “And what you don’t have in integrity, you could never make up for in experience”.

Political analyst J.C. Polanco notes that modern populist politics has changed: “Experience doesn’t count as much. A bunch of Democrats are saying it doesn’t matter”. Cuomo’s emphasis on his extensive resume hasn’t struck a chord with voters as he hoped.

The election’s final stretch finds Cuomo in what one hesitant Republican voter calls “stuck in purgatory”—unable to get enough crossover support despite trying to present himself as the practical choice against Mamdani.

Voter Demographics Shift Toward Mamdani

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“Mamdani has boosted his support among Black voters from 50% to 71%, while Cuomo lost 10 points with the same group.” — Spencer Kimball, Executive Director, Emerson College Polling

NYC’s mayoral election scene has changed radically as Mamdani gains strong support from voters of all backgrounds. The latest election data shows new voter groups rallying behind the 34-year-old Democratic nominee. These developments have reshaped the race’s final days.

Young voters and Asian Americans show overwhelming support

Young voters have flocked to Mamdani’s campaign like never before. Adults aged 18-29 now make up 16% of early ballots—much higher than previous elections. A recent Quinnipiac University poll reveals 62% of people aged 18-34 back Mamdani. This age group has become his strongest support base. The numbers tell the story clearly: voters under 35 represent 20% of all ballots cast.

South Asian voters have emerged as another vital part of Mamdani’s coalition. The Democratic primary saw South Asian voter turnout jump by 40%. Some neighborhoods even saw these communities’ participation double. Mamdani, born to Indian parents, could make history as the first Muslim and South Asian leader of America’s largest city.

Black voter support for Mamdani jumps from 50% to 71%

Mamdani’s success with Black voters comes as a surprise to many. After a tough primary season with this key Democratic group, his support among Black New Yorkers has shot up from 50% to 71%. This remarkable turnaround follows months of dedicated outreach, including his regular Sunday visits to Black churches throughout the city.

Cuomo loses 10 points among Black voters since September

Former Governor Cuomo’s grip on Black voters—once his strongest supporters—has weakened. Even with Mayor Eric Adams’s endorsement and joint campaign appearances, Cuomo has lost about 10 points among Black voters since September.

These changes go beyond race and age groups. Mamdani’s team has brought together nearly 100,000 volunteers who knocked on more than 331,000 doors in the campaign’s final week. His message about making life more affordable strikes a chord across communities. Political scientist Laura Tamman calls this a “meaningful shift” in who’s voting.

Trump’s Endorsement Fails to Sway NYC Electorate

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A surprising development in the NYC mayoral race shows former President Donald Trump’s unexpected endorsement of Andrew Cuomo has backfired among voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic city. The political maneuver failed to give Cuomo’s campaign the boost it desperately needed in the final stretch.

Trump backs Cuomo, threatens federal aid cuts

President Trump formally endorsed Cuomo last week. He praised the former governor’s “tough leadership” while threatening to withhold federal funding from New York City if Mamdani wins. “NYC will get NOTHING from Washington if they elect this radical,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. Trump’s potential involvement in the race had sparked weeks of speculation.

Mamdani positions himself as anti-Trump candidate

Mamdani saw the endorsement as “the greatest gift” to his campaign and used it to strengthen his position. He told supporters at a Queens rally: “This endorsement shows exactly what this election is about – a choice between the failed politics of the past or a new direction for our city.” His campaign then released advertisements that featured Trump’s endorsement of Cuomo alongside headlines about the former governor’s scandals.

Sliwa argues for cooperation with Trump administration

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa took a different approach. He argued that whatever people’s feelings toward Trump, the city must maintain a working relationship with the federal government. At a Fordham University debate, Sliwa stated, “You don’t have to like him, but you need to work with him. Our subway system alone needs billions in federal support.” This pragmatic stance has appealed to some moderate voters but hasn’t substantially improved Sliwa’s overall standing in the polls.

New York City’s traditionally Democratic electorate has remained unmoved through this unexpected endorsement saga. Post-endorsement polls show no positive effect on Cuomo’s campaign.

Key Issues Reshape Voter Priorities in Final Days

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Election Day is just around the corner, and NYC voters are zeroing in on key policy issues that will shape their choice for mayor. These last-minute priorities reflect what New Yorkers care about most as they get ready to pick their next leader.

Affordability and housing dominate voter concerns

The housing crisis has become the biggest issue affecting voters of all backgrounds. New York’s vacancy rate sits at just 1.4% – the lowest we’ve seen in almost 60 years. This makes affordability a pressing concern. About 70% of people in the city rent their homes, and more than 3 million tenants spend at least 30% of their yearly income on housing.

Things look even tougher in Manhattan, where you’ll need AED 20,562.87 monthly for a two-bedroom apartment. These sky-high costs have pushed many residents to pack up and move to cheaper places like Connecticut, New Jersey, and North Carolina.

Housing stands at the heart of each candidate’s campaign. Mamdani wants to freeze rent for nearly 2 million people living in rent-stabilized apartments and build 200,000 affordable homes. Cuomo doesn’t support rent freezes but promises to create 500,000 housing units.

Public safety and NYPD reform divide candidates

The candidates split sharply on public safety, though they all want to keep Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch in her role.

Mamdani wants to create a Department of Community Safety with a AED 3.67 billion budget. His plan would let specialized mental health professionals handle certain emergency calls instead of police.

Cuomo wants to add 5,000 more officers to the force and promises to tackle nuisance and quality-of-life crimes. Sliwa takes the strongest stance by calling for 7,000 new officers and bringing back specialized units that previous administrations had disbanded.

Israel-Gaza conflict influences Jewish and Muslim voters

The Israel-Gaza conflict has created some tricky dynamics in the campaign, especially among Jewish voters who make up about 15% of the city’s voters. Recent polls tell different stories – one shows Cuomo leading Mamdani 60% to 16% among Jewish voters, while others suggest the gap isn’t as wide.

Mamdani keeps reaching out to Jewish communities. He promises more funding to break down antisemitic incidents and says he’ll include Zionists in his administration. Some progressive Jewish voters back him mainly because of his affordability plans rather than his Middle East stance.

Rabbi Rick Jacobs sums up the complexity of the situation: “If you think the choice for mayor is simple, I respectfully suggest you are not paying attention”.

The NYC mayoral race has taken a dramatic turn as Election Day approaches. Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the clear frontrunner. Multiple polls show his commanding lead, with the Emerson College poll revealing a striking 25-point advantage. His campaign strategy has worked well with voters of all backgrounds, and his support among Black voters has jumped from 50% to an impressive 71%.

Former Governor Andrew Cuomo struggles to find a path to victory, despite his years of political experience. His independent campaign hasn’t attracted enough crossover support. Sexual harassment allegations continue to hurt his favorability ratings. Trump’s endorsement has backfired instead of helping Cuomo’s standing with the largely Democratic voters.

Republican Curtis Sliwa has gained some momentum with conservative voters but remains in third place in all surveys. Cuomo’s supporters have pressed him to drop out, but his refusal has made it harder for the opposition to unite against Mamdani.

Voter demographics paint a clear picture of New York City’s changing priorities. Mamdani’s vision has brought together young voters, Asian Americans, and previously hesitant Black communities. Analysts see this as a significant change in the electorate. Housing affordability remains the biggest concern for voters, and each candidate has proposed different solutions to tackle this crisis.

The final polling data suggests New Yorkers will make history by electing their first Muslim and South Asian mayor. This election shows how the city’s political world has changed, as new coalitions challenge traditional power structures and demand fresh solutions to long-standing urban problems.