Modi’s Strategic China Move Rattles Washington
The US might have reason to worry as Modi plans his first trip to China since 2018. This visit comes at a crucial time when India-US relations have soured after Washington slapped 50% tariffs on Indian imports[-3]. Modi’s timing suggests India might be rethinking its foreign policy strategy.
The two Asian powers seem ready to work together again, even after the deadly Galwan Valley conflict in 2020 that killed 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. China remains India’s second-biggest trading partner after the US, with trade between them reaching $118 billion last year. The neighbors’ relationship has grown stronger since Trump hit India with tough tariffs, including a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil.
Modi faces a delicate task during this visit. He needs to handle long-standing issues with China while dealing with unexpected economic challenges from Washington. The world watches as both Asian giants try to solve their border disputes. Many wonder if this meeting will change how alliances work in the region.
Modi visits China amid US tariff escalation
Image Source: Council on Foreign Relations
“Given the current volatility in the world economy, it is also important for India and China, as two major economies, to work together to bring stability to the world economic order.” — Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to China signals a dramatic diplomatic change as US tariffs threaten India’s economic stability. Modi will make his first visit to China since 2018 as both Asian giants carefully rebuild their relations after years of border tensions.
What triggered the diplomatic change?
Relations between India and China picked up pace after Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a private letter to Indian President Droupadi Murmu. The letter aimed to test Delhi’s openness to rebuild relations. This outreach happened when US President Donald Trump stepped up his trade war with China earlier this year.
Both nations have now taken solid steps to normalize relations. They plan to restart direct passenger flights within weeks. Beijing has eased restrictions on urea shipments to India, while New Delhi now offers tourist visas to Chinese nationals. These steps show both sides want to move past the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.
How Trump’s tariffs altered India’s foreign policy approach
Trump’s steep 50% tariffs on Indian imports have changed Delhi’s entire approach. These tariffs combine an original 25% rate plus a 25% penalty for India’s Russian oil purchases. The new rates, active since late August 2025, put at risk nearly 55% of India’s merchandise exports to the United States, valued at AED 319.46 billion.
These changes could cost up to 2 million Indian jobs in export sectors. Textile, seafood, and jewelry exporters face the biggest hit. Many have canceled US orders as they lose business to competitors like Bangladesh and Vietnam.
Modi has stood firm in response. He asked citizens to support local products by displaying “Swadeshi” or “Made in India” signs outside stores. The government also promised tax cuts and other help to reduce the damage.
Modi shows no signs of giving in to US pressure about Russian oil imports. Reports suggest he turned down four phone calls from Trump in recent weeks. This shows India’s commitment to what it calls “strategic autonomy” in foreign policy.
Manoj Kewalramani from the Takshashila Institution noted that US tariff threats made New Delhi move faster to stabilize its relationship with Beijing. Still, both nations had their own reasons to improve relations.
India and China resume engagement after Galwan standoff
Image Source: The Hindu
Relations between New Delhi and Beijing have started warming up after staying frozen for four years. Senior Indian officials visited China recently, which shows a slow return to normal after the deadly clash in Galwan Valley back in 2020.
What steps have been taken to normalize ties?
Both countries have taken real steps to rebuild their diplomatic connections. Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh went to China for Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings. Singh’s trip marked the first visit by a senior Indian official to China in five years. The External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar plans to visit China too, which points to ongoing high-level talks.
The countries agreed to bring back direct flights and ease visa rules that were put in place after the 2020 clash. Indian pilgrims can now visit the sacred Kailash mountain in Tibet after a six-year break. The two sides are talking about starting border trade again through three specific points: Lipulekh Pass, Shipki La Pass, and Nathu La Pass.
How border talks and trade resumption signal a thaw
India and China struck a deal about patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in October 2024. This addressed the problems that came up in 2020. Trade between the countries reached AED 466.34bn (£93.4bn) last year. China remains India’s second-biggest trading partner.
The countries set up three new ways to handle border issues: an “Expert Group” to look at boundary lines, a Working Group for border management, and General Level Mechanisms in Eastern and Middle Sectors.
Why the Galwan memory still lingers
Both sides keep large military forces along the border in what they call “armed coexistence”. Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi says the LAC stays “stable but sensitive” even though there’s “a degree of standoff”.
India still bans many Chinese apps and limits investments because of security worries from the 2020 clash. The relationship remains shaky, and experts say building trust back will take time and openness.
Modi recalibrates strategy to balance China and the US
Image Source: CNN
Trump’s tariffs reshape global relationships while Prime Minister Modi executes a delicate diplomatic balancing act between Washington and Beijing. This shows how India applies its time-tested approach to international relations.
What is India’s policy of strategic autonomy?
India’s core foreign policy doctrine prioritizes national interests over rigid bloc allegiance. This approach helps the country direct its path through global complexities while retaining sovereign independence. The policy has transformed through three distinct phases. It started as a response to American unipolarity after the Cold War, evolved during China’s rise, and now serves as a multipolar strategy amid US-China competition.
How Modi is leveraging China ties to counter US pressure
Modi’s visit to Tianjin follows the US decision to double tariffs to 50% on Indian exports. “Indian trust in the US is shattered,” notes South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman. He adds that Modi “will be in China at a moment when India-China relations are stabilizing and India-US relations have gone south. It is a powerful optic”. This diplomatic shift lets India show its displeasure to Washington while learning about new economic partnerships.
What role does the SCO summit play in this balancing act?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization gives Modi a vital platform to interact with multiple powers at once. India took a low-key approach during its 2023 SCO presidency, but Modi’s attendance in Tianjin now fulfills broader strategic goals. The summit brings together 20 countries and gives Modi chances to hold bilateral discussions with Xi and Putin.
How India’s Quad membership complicates the equation
India stays committed to the Quad—the security grouping with the US, Japan, and Australia that many see as a democratic counterweight to China. India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, emphasized this point: “The Quad is an important platform for working on and promoting peace, stability, prosperity and development in the Indo-Pacific region”. Modi’s vision for India as an autonomous power shapes the emerging world order rather than being shaped by it.
Washington watches Modi-Xi meeting with growing unease
Image Source: Council on Foreign Relations
The United States watches Modi’s China visit with growing worry as its decades-old strategy faces an unexpected challenge.
Why the US sees India as a counterweight to China
US administrations have worked to foster India as a strategic partner against China’s rising influence in Asia. Washington sees New Delhi as “indispensable” in the great-power competition and thinks about India as a vital part of maintaining regional power balance. The America’s Indo-Pacific strategy depends on India as a democratic counterweight to Beijing. Defense cooperation has grown through joint exercises, equipment sales, and operational coordination. The US sought India’s partnership as China built its military capabilities through export surpluses.
How the Modi-Xi optics challenge US influence in Asia
The meeting’s timing creates “powerful optics” that weaken Washington’s position. Beijing believes the detente “definitely started by Trump”. This gives China a chance to demonstrate what a “post-American-led international order” might look like. Chinese officials now think India should “adjust its foreign policy” due to reduced US support. This could make it harder for Washington to isolate China in global institutions.
What experts say about the future of US-India ties
The relationship faces serious risks despite years of diplomatic investment. Michael Kugelman points out that “Indian trust in the US is shattered”. Lindsey Ford warns that India often quietly blocked China-Russia initiatives that reduced dollar dependence—this roadblock might disappear amid current tensions. The rapprochement “will create complications within the Quad” and reduces mutual trust in this vital grouping.
Modi’s diplomatic move toward China marks a major reshuffling of Asia’s geopolitical landscape. The visit’s timing, alongside harsh US tariffs, sends Washington a clear message about India’s resolve to pursue its interests whatever external pressures exist. Both Asian giants seem ready to move forward practically after years of frozen relations following the Galwan Valley clash.
The relationship remains complex, notwithstanding that. Border tensions continue despite new agreements on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control. Trade figures tell their own story – bilateral exchanges hit $118 billion last year, making China India’s second-largest trading partner.
Trump’s tariff policies have without doubt sped up this rebalancing. America’s 50% duties threaten about 55% of India’s exports and could put millions of jobs at risk in key sectors. Modi has stood firm on Russian oil purchases despite mounting pressure, which shows his steadfast dedication to strategic autonomy.
India’s maturing approach to international relations reflects in this balancing act. Modi maintains his involvement with the Quad while deepening his commitment to SCO nations. This positions India as an independent power determined to forge its own path amid great-power rivalry.
Washington observes these developments with increasing concern. America’s strategy counted on India as a democratic counterweight to China’s growing influence in Asia for decades. Today’s warming relations challenge old assumptions about regional partnerships.
This diplomatic chess game ended up showing a fundamental transformation in global politics. Major powers now choose flexible, interest-based relationships over strict ideological bonds. The path ahead remains unclear, but one fact stands out – India’s ability to work with both Washington and Beijing shows its growth into a confident global player that can navigate complex international waters independently.
