“Peace at Risk”: UN Sounds Alarm on South Sudan Decline
South Sudan’s devastating civil war killed more than 400,000 people and forced over a million to flee their homes during five years of fighting. The 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar brought fragile peace, but that peace now faces serious threats. The United Nations Commission on Human Rights sees an “alarming regression” that could undo years of progress in the Upper Nile state. The country stands at a critical moment as national forces clash with the White Army militia and officials allied to Vice President Machar face arrest. These developments have prompted the African Union to voice deep concern and demand an immediate stop to fighting that could drag the nation back into conflict.
UN Reports Violence Erupts in Upper Nile State
Violent clashes broke out between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and armed youth militia in Nasir County, Upper Nile state, on February 14, 2025. SSPDF forces sparked the conflict by attacking civilians in a marketplace, which led to armed confrontations that forced thousands of residents to flee their homes.
The White Army, a Nuer ethnic militia group, intensified the conflict by taking over an army base in the region. The SSPDF responded by sending more troops, including ethnic militias outside the formal unification process. The military then launched airstrikes targeting opposition positions, but these strikes hit civilian areas as well.
The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) confirmed that fighters used heavy weapons during the battles. A UN helicopter came under fire in Nasir on March 7 while trying to evacuate wounded South Sudanese soldiers. The attack killed one crew member and wounded two others. The failed rescue mission also claimed the lives of Major General Majur Dak, who led the forces in Nasir, along with several of his soldiers.
Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth blamed the White Army for the violence, claiming they worked with Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO). The White Army has armed youth from Vice President Machar’s ethnic Nuer community.
UNMISS head Nicholas Haysom strongly condemned the attack on UN personnel. “This may constitute a war crime under international law,” he stated. The mission had coordinated with both the White Army and South Sudan’s military to evacuate wounded troops from the conflict zone.
The diplomatic missions of Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States, along with the European Union delegation, expressed deep concern about the growing violence in Upper Nile State. They urged leaders from all parties based in Juba to choose dialog over military action to resolve the tensions.
President Kiir Orders Arrest of Opposition Leaders
South Sudanese security forces escalated political tensions by launching arrests that targeted First Vice President Riek Machar’s key allies. The government detained Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam on Tuesday. Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol was arrested with his bodyguards and family members on Wednesday.
Military forces surrounded Machar’s residence in Juba and placed him under house arrest. The government confined several other senior military officials allied with Machar to their homes. They also detained Peacebuilding Minister Stephen Par Kuol from his office.
Information Minister Michael Makuei defended these actions and said the detained officials were “in conflict with the law”. The government claimed Machar’s allies worked with the White Army militia to attack a military garrison near the Upper Nile town of Nasir.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) reacted strongly. Water Minister Pal Mai Deng, the party’s spokesperson, said General Lam’s arrest “violates the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan”. The party worried about military deployment around Machar’s residence and warned these actions hurt confidence between political parties.
The international community responded quickly. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) warned that the situation could damage the peace agreement’s achievements. Like in other cases, diplomatic missions from the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union asked all sides to show restraint and stop hostilities.
Daniel Akech Thiong, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned these arrests marked a serious escalation. He said armed groups linked to the opposition might launch retaliatory attacks in Upper Nile and Jonglei states. This crisis threatens the 2018 peace agreement that had prevented fighting between Kiir and Machar’s forces.
Peace Agreement Shows Signs of Collapse
South Sudan’s Peace Agreement faces its most important challenges today. Political will is fading, parties don’t trust each other, and funding remains unpredictable. The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission’s Interim Chairperson, Charles Tai Gituai, confirmed a new timeline. Parties agreed to push the transitional period from February 2025 to February 2027. Elections will now take place in December 2026.
Security arrangements are the foundations of the agreement, but their implementation remains incomplete. The plan called for 83,000 soldiers from opposition and government forces to unite as one national army. The reality shows nowhere near that number, with only 55,000 graduates. In spite of that, these graduates struggle severely. Many stay near training centers without proper supplies. This situation has led to hundreds of deaths and thousands of soldiers deserting their posts.
A recent survey between March and June 2024 showed an interesting trend. People of all 10 states expressed their views, and 71% believed South Sudan stood ready for elections. The decision to postpone elections violated Article 199 of the R-ARCSS. This article requires a month-long legislative discussion before any constitutional changes.
The peace process struggles with several structural issues:
- No draft constitution exists
- Census remains incomplete
- Security arrangements show partial completion
- Troops have joined existing military units instead of creating a new national force
The government shows its unwillingness to share power through various actions. South Sudan’s President and political leaders have received substantial international support. Yet they “have not demonstrated political will to seriously move towards elections”. Critical processes slow down because the government won’t provide funding. This undermines support from both UNMISS and the international community.
Violence between communities poses another serious threat to the country’s transition. The Sudan conflict makes the humanitarian situation worse. It causes many returnees and refugees to flood into the country. The permanent ceasefire holds generally, but recent fights in Western Equatoria State worry many observers.
Deep-seated differences and hostility between rival parties make implementation harder. The government’s lack of political will compounds these problems. Security forces resist merging completely. A full integration would weaken Dinka control over the security sector by bringing in large numbers of Nuer, Shilluk, and Equatorians.
South Sudan faces a pivotal moment as recent events threaten to destroy years of delicate peace. The mix of violent clashes in Upper Nile State and targeted arrests of opposition leaders shows dangerous signs of instability, despite international diplomatic efforts. The government’s reluctance to share power and incomplete security arrangements weaken the foundation of the 2018 peace agreement.
Trust continues to fade between President Kiir’s government and Vice President Machar’s allies, making the situation more dangerous. The decision to extend the transitional period until 2027 seems inadequate without solutions to core problems. These include the undrafted constitution, incomplete security sector reforms, and rising intercommunal tensions.
South Sudan’s history of devastating civil conflict makes the international community’s warnings crucial. The country’s leaders must renew their commitment to dialog and peaceful resolution. Regional bodies and the United Nations should continue their strong support for the peace process. The world’s youngest nation’s stability now depends on its leaders who must choose national unity over political division to avoid returning to civil war.
