What Happened in Syria? The Fall of al-Assad Explained

Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule ended abruptly, marking the most important political change in the Middle East since the Arab Spring. The Assad family controlled Syria for over five decades, but their power crumbled as the nation’s political map changed dramatically. His regime’s quick collapse stunned the international community and altered the map of regional power dynamics.

Syria changed from a stable but authoritarian state to its current political reality. This transformation shows how military developments, international diplomacy, and changing alliances work together. Assad’s downfall happened when his main international supporters left and internal pressures mounted. These events changed Syria and sparked widespread changes throughout the Middle East’s political world.

The Swift Collapse of Assad’s Regime

Opposition forces launched a surprise attack in northern Syria at the time of November 27, 2024. This lightning offensive brought down the Assad regime. The military campaign that followed had no precedent, as major cities fell faster than expected. Damascus collapsed in just eleven days.

Timeline of the Final Two Weeks

The opposition’s advance moved at a breathtaking pace:

• November 27-29: Rebels took control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city
• December 1-5: Opposition forces swept through Hama and its surrounding territories
• December 6-7: Rebel forces captured Homs
• December 8: Damascus fell, marking Assad’s rule’s end

Key Military Developments

Syrian army’s resistance fell apart faster than expected. Soldiers left their posts and equipment on multiple fronts. Years of attrition had already weakened the military. They had lost about half of their original 300,000-strong force through casualties, defections, and draft-dodging. Assad tried to boost morale with a 50% salary increase for career soldiers. This attempt failed as the economy remained in ruins.

Role of International Allies’ Withdrawal

The regime’s traditional allies stepped back, which sped up its collapse. Russia could not provide much military help beyond limited airstrikes due to its war in Ukraine. Israeli military pressure had reduced Iran’s influence. Hezbollah pulled its forces from Syria to focus on conflicts near their home territory. These vital allies had helped Assad stay in power. Their absence played a decisive role in the regime’s quick downfall.

Power Vacuum and New Leadership

Syria’s political world changed dramatically when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) became a dominant force after Assad’s departure. The group has controlled a “salvation government” in northwestern Syria since 2017 and now leads the country’s transformation.

HTS’s Rise to Power

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who now uses his birth name Ahmad al-Shara, has led HTS through its most important transformation. The organization cut ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and started a journey toward moderation and institutional reform. Al-Golani’s radical alteration embraced pluralism and religious tolerance while building connections with tribal and ethnic groups of all types across Syria.

Military Coalition Dynamics

Several forces united to create the opposition’s soaring win:

• Turkish-backed Syrian National Army
• Southern Operations Room
• Kurdish Syrian Defense Forces
• Local armed groups and tribal militias

This alliance of different groups shared the goal of opposing Assad. They now face the challenge of staying united in the post-regime period. Their effective coordination became a vital factor in the swift territorial gains that captured Damascus.

Original Governance Steps

Stability remained the priority during the transition process. HTS leaders allowed the existing civil administration to continue its work under the former Prime Minister’s supervision. Rebel forces freed “all unjustly detained prisoners” from the regime’s detention system while creating new governance structures. The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, requested urgent talks in Geneva to ensure an “orderly political transition”. His request showed how the international community focused on maintaining stability during this vital period.

International Response and Implications

Assad’s fall has triggered a complex web of diplomatic reactions and security concerns across the international community. Nations worldwide are adapting quickly to this new reality in Middle Eastern politics.

Regional Powers’ Reactions

Middle Eastern nations show different levels of concern about the new political landscape. Egypt wants to keep Syria’s state institutions and national unity intact. Qatar stresses the need to stop the country from falling into chaos. The UAE and Saudi Arabia’s deep concerns about Islamist political power growing in Damascus stem from their traditional wariness of Islamist movements.

Western Nations’ Stance

Western governments welcome Assad’s departure with caution while pushing for stability. The EU’s top diplomat calls it a “positive and long-awaited development”. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sees it as “good news” but emphasizes quick restoration of law and order. President Biden takes a measured approach and stays in constant contact with regional partners while watching the situation closely.

Global Security Concerns

Several immediate security challenges face the international community after Assad’s fall:

• Lebanon has closed all but one of its land crossings, while Jordan has shut down its border crossing completely
• Israel now controls a buffer zone in the Golan Heights where Syrian military positions were abandoned
• The U.S. continues its operations in eastern Syria to stop any Islamic State comeback

Syria’s fragmentation creates major risks for neighboring countries. Refugee flows, cross-border violence, and sectarian tensions could get worse. The international community aims to stop Syria from becoming a source of regional instability and support a transition that keeps the country’s territory intact.

Strategic Shifts in Middle East

Assad’s regime collapse has altered the Middle East’s power structure and created a fundamental change in how regional powers interact. This sudden downfall has changed alliances and brought new security risks to countries throughout the region.

Iran-Russia Influence Decline

Both Iran and Russia have lost much of their regional power after the regime change. Russian military bases in Syria, including the vital Tartus Naval Base and Khmeimim Air Base, now face uncertainty as Moscow pulls back its military forces. Syria’s loss hits Iran hard, weakening Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” and limiting its ability to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon with weapons and support.

Turkey’s Enhanced Role

Turkey has become a key player in Syria’s transformation and now strongly influences the country’s future direction. Turkish leaders can utilize economic, diplomatic, and military power to guide the stabilization process. Turkey has pushed forward its strategic goals through its proxy, the Syrian National Army, which include:

• Creating a buffer zone along its border
• Addressing Kurdish separatist concerns
• Setting up conditions for potential refugee return

Israel-Syria Border Dynamics

Israel now deals with new challenges on its northern frontier. The IDF has added troops in the Golan Heights and set up closed military zones near farming areas. The end of Assad’s rule disrupts Iran’s regional network, but Israel must now work with different ideological leadership in Damascus. Israeli forces have recently focused on stopping weapons from moving between Syria and Lebanon by striking convoys and military sites along their shared border.

This strategic reshaping has left a power gap that only Turkey seems ready to fill in post-Assad Syria. The old regional security structure has crumbled, forcing every country to rethink its position as changes happen faster.

Syria’s political change stands as a historic moment that has reshaped Middle Eastern power dynamics. Assad’s dramatic fall took just eleven days of military action and ended his family’s five-decade rule. This created waves of change throughout the region. HTS’s rise under Ahmad al-Shara’s leadership and Turkey’s growing regional influence point to fundamental changes in how Syria governs itself.

Global powers now face major challenges as this new situation takes shape. Western nations remain cautiously optimistic while regional powers adjust their positions. Turkey’s stronger role, along with Russia and Iran’s weakened influence, has changed long-standing regional partnerships. Opposition forces showed they could work together effectively, and this unity remains vital to Syria’s stability.

These changes will influence Middle Eastern politics for years ahead. Global stakeholders must address security issues, refugee movements, and border tensions right away. Syria’s transformation goes beyond a simple change in leadership. It marks the end of one era and the start of another in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Regional and international players will need to navigate this new reality with care.