World Bank: Qatar Economy Leads GCC With 6.5% Growth Target

The World Bank forecasts Qatar’s economy will surge to an average growth rate of 6.5% during 2026-2027. The Gulf nation expects stable economic growth of 2.4% in 2025, followed by a sharp acceleration as major energy projects begin operations. Qatar’s ambitious North Field LNG expansion will drive this remarkable upturn and boost the nation’s liquefied natural gas output by 40%.

Qatar’s economic outlook remains positive beyond its hydrocarbon sector. The World Bank highlights Qatar’s strong 2024 economic performance that creates a solid foundation. Non-hydrocarbon growth shows particular strength in education, tourism, and services[-5]. These sectors then outpace the broader economy with growth projected at 3.3%. This balanced development approach reinforces Qatar’s economic diversification goals while strengthening its position as a global energy powerhouse.

World Bank forecasts 6.5% growth for Qatar by 2027

The World Bank’s latest Gulf Economic Update shows Qatar’s economy will take off after a modest growth period in 2024-2025. The country’s growth rate will hold steady at 2.4% in 2025, then jump to 4.1% in 2025-2026, and soar to 6.5% in 2026-2027. Qatar stands out as one of the Gulf region’s fastest-growing economies, with numbers that will surpass the GCC-wide GDP growth projection of 4.5% in 2026.

Qatar economy 2024 performance sets the stage

Qatar’s economic performance in 2024 built a strong foundation for future growth. The country’s real GDP grew by 2.4% from 2023, reaching 713 billion Qatari Riyals at constant prices. The economy gained momentum in the fourth quarter with a 6.1% year-on-year real GDP growth at constant prices. These numbers highlight Qatar’s successful recovery after hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022.

The economy saw remarkable growth across several sectors in 2024:

• Accommodation and restaurants grew by 14.7%
• Financial activities expanded by 11.1%
• Wholesale and retail trade increased by 9.0%
• Construction bounced back with 9.6% growth

North Field LNG expansion to drive hydrocarbon rebound

The hydrocarbon sector grew by 0.6% in 2024 but stands ready for massive expansion. Production from the North Field East natural gas project will start in mid-2026. This first phase will boost Qatar’s LNG output by 40% to 110 million tons per annum (mtpa). The country plans to reach 126 mtpa by 2027.

The World Bank expects this expansion to reshape Qatar’s hydrocarbon sector between Q4 2025 and 2027. The hydrocarbon GDP should rise by 27% in 2026, pushing overall economic growth into double digits. This game-changing project will secure Qatar’s position as the world’s leading LNG supplier.

Non-oil sectors maintain steady momentum

Qatar’s non-oil sectors show healthy growth projections of 2.3% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025-2026. These numbers line up with Qatar’s National Vision 2030 framework. Non-hydrocarbon activities made up nearly 64% of total GDP in 2024, up from 63% in 2023.

New infrastructure projects, manufacturing expansion, and tourism growth power the non-hydrocarbon sector. Tourism exceeded expectations in 2024 with 5.08 million visitors—a big step toward reaching 6 million annual visitors by 2030. The education sector grew by an impressive 14.4%, showing Qatar’s dedication to building a knowledge-based economy.

LNG expansion boosts Qatar’s global energy position

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Qatar’s energy investments are changing the global LNG map with its North Field expansion project. This massive project stands as the largest LNG venture in history and establishes Qatar as an energy superpower for the coming decades.

North Field project to increase LNG output by 40%

The North Field expansion has two major phases—North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS). These projects will boost Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) to 110 mtpa once completed. This 40% increase in output comes from Qatar’s access to the world’s largest natural gas field that it shares with Iran.

The project has six new LNG trains—four in NFE and two in NFS phase. Each train will produce about 8 mtpa using cutting-edge liquefaction technology. The expansion also features carbon capture and storage capabilities that show Qatar’s dedication to reducing its LNG production’s carbon footprint.

Qatar wants to raise global LNG market share to 25%

Qatar controls about 20% of the global LNG market today. The country plans to grow this share to 25% through this expansion, cementing its place as the world’s leading LNG supplier. This goal aligns with the expected growth in natural gas demand over the next decade, particularly in Asian markets.

Qatar’s edge comes from its remarkably low production costs—around $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). These costs run much lower than most other producers. Qatar can stay profitable even when prices swing wildly, making it a steady supplier in unstable market conditions.

Timeline: New LNG volumes come online

Qatar’s expanded LNG capacity will roll out as follows:

• Late 2025: Original production from NFE phase starts
• Mid-2026: Full production from NFE phase reaches additional 32 mtpa
• 2027: NFS phase begins production with extra 16 mtpa

Qatar Petroleum has already secured long-term supply deals with major energy companies worldwide. These agreements will help stabilize the market as new volumes enter. The deals will support Qatar’s economy by creating steady revenue streams well into the 2040s.

Non-hydrocarbon sectors support diversification goals

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Qatar’s hydrocarbon sector remains crucial, yet non-hydrocarbon activities have steadily grown. These activities now make up nearly 64% of total GDP, showing an increase from 63% in 2023. This change demonstrates the country’s successful strategy to diversify its economy in alignment with its long-term vision.

Education, tourism, and services show strong growth

Education serves as the life-blood of Qatar’s diversification efforts and has achieved 14.4% growth. The government invested QR 22 billion in 2020 to build a world-class educational ecosystem. This system has 208 public schools that serve more than 196,000 students and over 310 private schools teaching approximately 200,000 students. Qatar has also become a regional education hub with 27 private and public colleges and Qatar University.

Tourism numbers have exceeded projections. Qatar welcomed 5.08 million visitors in 2024, which is a big deal as it means that the annual target of 4.79 million was surpassed. The sector contributed QR 55 billion (approximately 8% of GDP) to Qatar’s economy in 2024, showing a 14% increase from 2023. The sector looks set to reach its 2030 target of 12% GDP contribution.

Service industries have demonstrated remarkable strength. Accommodation and restaurants grew by 14.7%, financial activities by 11.1%, and wholesale and retail trade by 9.0%. Professional services alone added AED 22.03 billion to Qatar’s economy.

Infrastructure upgrades attract foreign investment

Qatar drew USD 2.74 billion in foreign direct investment through 241 projects in 2024, creating 9,348 jobs. All but one of these investments went toward greenfield projects, showing the country’s dedication to expanding its infrastructure.

Major investment sectors include electric power generation (40.1% of capital expenditure), retail and wholesale trade, data processing, and scientific research. Qatar’s enhanced business environment has raised its position to 11th place in the IMD World Competitiveness Index 2024.

Qatar economy overview: Vision 2030 and NDS 3

The Third National Development Strategy (NDS3) marks the final phase of Qatar National Vision 2030. This strategy will reshape the scene by transforming Qatar into an advanced society capable of eco-friendly development. NDS3 targets 4% annual economic growth through 2030. We focused on diversification into manufacturing, tourism, logistics, education, health, food and agriculture, financial services, and information technology.

This detailed strategy has specialized economic clusters that build competitive advantages in logistics, education, and healthcare. Qatar wants to rank among the top 10 destinations for investors and businesses by 2030, with plans to attract AED 367.19 billion in foreign direct investment.

Fiscal policy and global risks shape future trajectory

Qatar’s economy needs strong fiscal management to handle its opportunities and challenges. The country’s expanding energy sector shows promise, but smart policy decisions will determine its success.

World Bank urges smart spending and innovation

Qatar continues to maintain surplus in its fiscal and external balances. The country’s disciplined spending approach has strengthened these gains. The World Bank suggests continued careful management, diverse revenue sources, and better spending efficiency to boost private sector growth. However, the fiscal surplus narrowed to 0.7% of GDP from 5.5% in 2023 due to an 18% drop in hydrocarbon revenue in 2024.

Qatar and the UAE stand out among GCC nations as the only countries expected to keep fiscal surpluses in 2025. The government has created a medium-term fiscal policy framework that evaluates revenue scenarios for the next two to three decades.

Risks: global trade tensions and LNG oversupply

The qatar economy faces several risks in 2024: unstable energy prices, growing geopolitical tensions, and China’s potential economic slowdown. U.S. tariffs should minimally affect GCC countries because of their low U.S. export exposure and energy product exemptions.

LNG supply glut poses a more immediate challenge. The International Energy Agency predicts surplus liquefaction capacity of 130 bcm by 2030, about 15% of global capacity. This oversupply will:

• Last well into the 2030s
• Lower LNG prices worldwide
• Drop utilization rates to roughly 75% between 2025-35
• Make it harder for Qatar to secure long-term buyers during market saturation

Sustainability regulations challenge long-term strategy

Qatar’s Finance Minister has expressed concerns about the EU’s new ESG regulations. These rules could hurt Qatar’s LNG exports to Europe by creating unfair competition. The sustainability requirements, which ask companies to address human rights and climate effects, have already shifted trade patterns—Qatar’s LNG exports to the EU dropped from 18% in 2022 to 13% in 2024.

Qatar Energy has responded by creating a Sustainability Strategy with specific targets:

• Methane intensity of 0.2% by 2025
• Carbon reduction intensity of 15% from upstream and 25% from LNG facilities by 2030
• Zero routine flaring by 2030

Qatar’s Economic Future Balances Energy Expansion with Diversification

Qatar finds itself at a crucial economic turning point. World Bank projections show exceptional growth potential through 2027. The expected 6.5% surge isn’t just about numbers – it’s evidence of Qatar’s strategic vision and knowing how to put plans into action.

The North Field expansion project stands as the main driver behind this remarkable growth path. This massive project will secure Qatar’s spot as the world’s leading LNG supplier and boost national output by 40%. The well-laid-out timeline to bring new capacity online will give a steady economic momentum through 2027 and beyond.

Non-hydrocarbon sectors have made equally important contributions to the economy. Tourism numbers soared past expectations with 5.08 million visitors in 2024. Education grew an impressive 14.4%. Service industries showed remarkable strength with double-digit growth across many subsectors. These achievements line up perfectly with Qatar’s National Vision 2030 framework that wants to revolutionize the nation into an advanced, diverse economy.

The country faces some challenges that need careful handling. The expected global LNG oversupply could push prices down and affect utilization rates. Changing sustainability rules might impact Qatar’s export relationships, especially with European markets. In spite of that, Qatar’s fiscal discipline makes it one of only two GCC nations likely to keep budget surpluses through 2025.

Qatar’s economic future looks exceptionally bright. The success depends heavily on the North Field expansion, but the country has shown its steadfast dedication to both hydrocarbon excellence and economic diversity. The nation seems ready to reach its ambitious growth targets while building its position as an energy superpower and diverse economic hub for decades ahead.